Modeling COVID-19 Control Measures on a Cruise Ship
Resource Type
Description
This case study follows a 2020 COVID-19 outbreak on a cruise ship to highlight how control measures like lockdown impact disease spread. Students model the impact of implementing control measures based on authentic data, then compare SIR graphs to visualize the effects.
The case study facilitates students’ use of the “Epidemic Simulator” from the Modeling Disease Spread Click & Learn. It is recommended for students who have already completed the “SIR Model Basics” section of the Click & Learn, those who are already familiar with the SIR model, and/or college introductory biology classes. By completing this case study, students will deepen their understanding of the SIR model, interpreting SIR graphs, and how vaccination impacts SIR curves.
The “Resource Google Folder” link directs to a Google Drive folder of resource documents in the Google Docs format. Not all downloadable documents for the resource may be available in this format. The Google Drive folder is set as “View Only”; to save a copy of a document in this folder to your Google Drive, open that document, then select File → “Make a copy.” These documents can be copied, modified, and distributed online following the Terms of Use listed in the “Details” section below, including crediting BioInteractive.
Student Learning Targets
- Analyze how a highly infectious disease (large R0) spreads in a population.
- Describe the relationship between the basic reproduction number (R0), transmission rate, and recovery rate.
- Modify parameters in the SIR model to integrate control measures.
- Predict how control measures will impact an outbreak when a vaccine is unavailable.
- Compare model results to real outbreak data.
Estimated Time
Key Terms
basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Re), epidemiology, initial case, infectious, isolation, lockdown, SIR model, recovery, susceptible, transmission
Primary Literature
Nakazawa, E., H. Ino, and A. Akabayashi. 2020. “Chronology of COVID-19 Cases on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship and Ethical Considerations: A Report From Japan.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 14, 4: 506–513. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.50.
Rocklöv, J., H. Sjödin, and A. Wilder-Smith. 2020. “COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures.” Journal of Travel Medicine 27, 3: taaa030. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa030.
Yamagishi, T., H. Kamiya, K. Kakimoto, M. Suzuki, and T. Wakita. 2020. “Descriptive study of COVID-19 outbreak among passengers and crew on Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama Port, Japan, 20 January to 9 February 2020.” Euro Surveillance 25, 23: pii=2000272. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.23.2000272.
Terms of Use
The resource is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license. No rights are granted to use HHMI’s or BioInteractive’s names or logos independent from this Resource or in any derivative works.